I'm writing this on a Sunday night and I'm genuinely confused about how to feel. Like, a lot happened today and yesterday and I'm still sorting through it. But the headline is simple: FC Porto are four points away from the title. Four. That's a win and a draw. Three games left. The champagne is practically on ice.
Let me walk through everything.
Saturday started with Benfica doing Benfica things. 4-1 against Moreirense at the Luz, 56,000-odd fans in the stadium for what was basically a routine operation. Leandro Barreiro scored after TWO minutes — honestly the game was barely underway and Benfica were already ahead. Richard Ríos made it 2-0 on 29 minutes, Diogo Travassos pulled one back for Moreirense three minutes earlier (so the sequence was actually 1-0, 1-1 briefly, then 2-1 at halftime, though the goals came very close together). Then Ivanovic came off the bench and scored twice in the last couple of minutes — 89th and 90+2 — because apparently the Croatian can't stop scoring right now.
The scary thing about Benfica is the unbeaten record. Twenty-two wins and nine draws. Zero defeats in 31 games. They haven't lost a league match since January 2025. That's 46 consecutive games without a loss. It's genuinely remarkable and yet they're still seven points behind Porto. Nine draws will do that. Nine! You can be unbeatable and still not be champion, which is kind of poetic if you think about it.
Mourinho did Mourinho things in the press conference afterwards — praised the bench players, talked about intensity, said nothing particularly memorable. Standard stuff. Benfica have 75 points and second place is pretty much locked down. Champions League guaranteed. The season isn't a failure by any means but you know deep down it could have been so much more if they'd turned some of those draws into wins.
Vitória de Guimarães beat Rio Ave 2-0 at home, also on Saturday. Samu scored on 72 minutes and Tony Strata added a lovely goal in stoppage time to seal it. Third win in four for Vitória and they jumped to seventh, above Moreirense. Not much else to say about this one — solid performance, nothing spectacular, but the points were needed and they got them.
Now Sunday. This is where it gets interesting.
Porto went to the Reboleira to face Estrela da Amadora and came away with a 2-1 win that was more comfortable than the scoreline suggests. The first half was completely one-sided. Pietuszewski — the young Polish forward who's been turning heads all season — went on one of his trademark runs and got fouled inside the box by Kevin Jansson. Penalty. Deniz Gül stepped up and converted. His first league goal of the season and it came from the spot. Seventeen minutes gone.
Then on 37 minutes, Alberto Costa delivered a beautiful cross from the right and Gül rose to head it into the top corner. 2-0 at halftime. The Turkish striker hadn't scored in the league in four months and suddenly he had two in twenty minutes. Football is weird like that.
Second half was different though. Estrela came out with nothing to lose and actually pushed Porto back. Hit the post twice — TWICE — before Jovane Cabral (ex-Sporting, naturally) headed in at 80 minutes to make it 2-1. The last ten minutes got nervy. Properly nervy. Porto were hanging on rather than cruising. But they held on and that's all that matters.
82 points. Three games left. Four points needed for the title. And here's the thing — two of those three remaining games are at the Dragão (Alverca and Santa Clara), with only one away trip left (AVS, who are already relegated). The title could be sealed as early as next week if results go Porto's way. Farioli is going to be champion in his first season and honestly, nobody predicted this back in August.
And then there was the Sporting game. Oh, Sporting.
AFS 1-1 Sporting. Yes, you read that right. The team that's already relegated, rock bottom of the table with 13 points, the worst attack AND worst defence in the league, drew with Sporting. At home. In Vila das Aves.
I mean... where do I even start.
The first half was pretty much all Sporting but without any cutting edge. They had the ball, they had territory, they created some half-chances, but they couldn't break down an AFS side that sat in a low block and defended for their lives. Pedro Gonçalves had a great chance and Adriel in the AFS goal made a brilliant save. Debast hit one from distance that Adriel saved again. Morita tried a clever through ball that went nowhere. Zero zero at halftime against the last-placed team. Not great.
Second half, Rafael Nel finally broke the deadlock for Sporting and Alvalade — well, Vila das Aves — breathed a sigh of relief. But then, at 66 minutes, Morita (yes, Morita again, the man who seems to be involved in every penalty incident this season) was penalized for handball. Pedro Lima stepped up for AFS and equalized from the spot. 1-1. The stadium that was supposed to be a funeral for the home team suddenly felt very different.
Sporting pushed for a winner but never really looked like getting one. AFS actually hit the post through Óscar Perea at 90+5 and could have stolen all three points. Imagine. The already-relegated team beating the defending champions. It didn't happen but the fact that it nearly did tells you everything about where Sporting are right now mentally.
This result is terrible for multiple reasons. First, the optics — drawing with the worst team in the league when you're supposed to be challenging for the title. Second, the maths — Sporting are now eleven points behind Porto, though they have two games in hand (Tondela on Wednesday and then regular schedule). Even if they win both, that's still five points behind with two to play. The title is gone. Everybody knows it. The question now is whether Sporting can even hold on to second place ahead of Benfica, who are three points ahead with one more game played.
And maybe most importantly, this result might actually hand Porto the title next weekend. If Porto beat AVS away and Sporting drop more points, it's mathematically over. The party could happen on May 3rd or even sooner depending on how Wednesday goes.
Quick note on the Estoril-Famalicão game: Famalicão won 1-0 thanks to a Justin de Haas penalty on 51 minutes. That's nine games unbeaten now for Famalicão and they're sitting pretty in fifth with 51 points. The European places are within reach. Hugo Oliveira has done a tremendous job this season and doesn't get enough credit for it. Estoril, on the other hand, have now lost five in a row and dropped to tenth. Not a great trajectory heading into the final weeks.
And in the Açores, Santa Clara pulled off a lovely comeback to beat Braga 2-1. Zalazar opened the scoring for Braga on 30 minutes after a nice assist from the young Luisinho (who was making his debut, I think). But Gonçalo Paciência equalized on 71 minutes and Gabriel Silva completed the turnaround on 83. Braga stay fourth with 56 points, which is fine, but the timing is terrible because they host Friburgo on Thursday in the first leg of the Europa League semi-finals. Losing right before the biggest game of your season is not ideal preparation.
Then again, Carlos Vicens probably rotated the squad with Thursday in mind. You could see that Braga weren't at full intensity. It's a calculated risk — sacrifice three league points to keep legs fresh for Europe. If they beat Friburgo and reach the final, nobody will remember this loss. If they don't, everyone will wonder whether the momentum was killed in the Açores.
Gil Vicente vs Casa Pia is on Monday so that's still to come.
The title race: where do we stand?
Right, let's do the maths because this is what everyone wants to know.
FC Porto — 82 points (31 games played)
Three games left: AVS (away), Alverca (home), Santa Clara (home). Need four points for the title. A win against AVS next weekend could do it depending on Sporting's results. Maximum possible: 91 points.
SL Benfica — 75 points (31 games played)
Three games left. Seven points behind Porto. Invicta all season but effectively out of the title race — even if Porto lose everything and Benfica win everything, Porto would still likely finish ahead on head-to-head or goal difference. The focus now is locking down second place and the Champions League spot. Maximum possible: 84 points.
Sporting CP — 72 points (29 games played)
Five games left (including Wednesday's game against Tondela and the regular three remaining). Ten points behind Porto. Even winning all five puts them on 87, but Porto only need four more from nine available. Mathematically alive but practically dead. Maximum possible: 87 points.
So here's the brutal truth: Porto can be champions as early as next weekend. If Porto beat AVS and Sporting don't win both of their games (Tondela on Wednesday and whatever is next), it's over. And honestly, after tonight's draw with AFS, does anyone really trust Sporting to win every game from here? Rui Borges has a great team on paper but something is broken. The derby loss, the AFS draw, the general sense of a season that started with title ambitions and is ending with a whimper — it's hard to watch if you're a Sporting fan.
Porto have won 26 out of 31 games. They've conceded 15 goals all season. Farioli has built the best defensive unit in Portuguese football and probably one of the best in Europe. The title is coming to the Dragão and at this point it's just about when, not if.
Three games left. Four points needed. The champagne is getting cold.