Is Gold's Scarcity Truly Secure? Exploring Future Threats to Its Value
Welcome! In this post, we're going to explore the potential technological threats that could challenge the long-held scarcity of gold, a cornerstone of its value.
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The Foundation of Gold's Value: Rarity
Most of us understand a fundamental economic principle: rarity can significantly increase value. Gold exemplifies this. It's a fairly rare element, not just on Earth, but across the universe, primarily due to the very specific and extreme cosmic conditions required for its creation.
To date, under 300,000 metric tons of gold have been discovered globally. While exploration continues, it's widely believed that there isn't substantially more gold accessible on our planet. But does this earthly limit guarantee gold's perpetual scarcity?
Emerging Challenges: Can Humanity Create Gold?
Perhaps not entirely. While gold's natural formation requires extraordinary cosmic events, humanity's relentless pursuit of scientific mastery presents a potential challenge. We are constantly pushing the boundaries of what's possible, from developing "artificial suns" in fusion reactors to delving into the quantum realm with powerful particle colliders. These kinds of technological advancements could, in theory, one day threaten the scarcity of gold.
This isn't a brand-new concept. The idea of transmuting elements, turning a base metal into gold, has been the alchemist's dream for centuries. In fact, as early as 1941, U.S. chemist Glenn T. Seaborg successfully transmuted a small amount of bismuth into gold. (Transmutation involves altering the number of protons in an atom's nucleus, effectively changing one element into another).
Artificial Gold: A Present-Day Reality Check
It's crucial to keep current realities in perspective. To this day, artificially produced gold poses no significant threat to the market. The yield from such processes is minuscule, and the economic cost is far too high to be commercially worthwhile. Put simply, it's not worthwhile.
However, it's not entirely far-fetched to imagine a future where technological breakthroughs make gold production significantly easier and cheaper. Should that day come, gold might no longer be the exceptionally rare element we know today.
Should Gold Stackers Worry About a Devalued Future?
For those of us who invest in or "stack" gold, what does this distant possibility mean? In my view, there's little cause for immediate concern. If humanity reaches a stage where we can effortlessly produce gold, it's highly doubtful that our societies will still be grappling with concepts like money in its current form. Such a transformative capability would likely be part of a much larger paradigm shift.
This era of easy gold creation is also, more than likely, beyond our individual lifetimes. Yet, as I've discussed in previous writings, I believe we are on the cusp of a technological revolution. This won't be just another incremental step; it will be far more aggressive and intense than even the Industrial Revolution. So, buckle up – we are undoubtedly headed towards unexplored territories.
This post was inspired by an article from The Independent exploring related topics, which you can read here.
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(1) An image I generated with AI, this post was edited with AI, to improve spelling, punctuation, readability and improve SEO,
Original unedited post included in the comments
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