In February 2026, Bitcoin experienced a remarkable rally following a period of extreme volatility. After reaching a peak of $126,000 in October 2025, the cryptocurrency plummeted to around $60,000, wiping out trillions in market value. However, in recent weeks, it has shown signs of recovery, climbing toward $65,000, driven by a positive premium on Coinbase, indicating a return of US demand. This resurgence has fueled speculation about how far this rally could extend, with predictions ranging from conservative to boldly optimistic.
The macroeconomic context plays a crucial role. Institutional adoption continues to grow, with pension funds and ETFs attracting steady inflows. Wall Street analysts, such as those at Nasdaq, predict that Bitcoin could reach $150,000 by the end of 2026, citing catalysts like regulatory reforms and the lingering impact of the 2024 halving. Bit Mining raises the bar to $225,000, while Bloomberg Intelligence sets a floor of $130,000-$140,000. These forecasts are based on supply scarcity and the increasing integration of Bitcoin into traditional finance, fueled by government support in the US.
On the other hand, more cautious voices warn of risks. On platforms like X (formerly Twitter), experts such as Tom Lee of Fundstrat maintain a target of $200,000-$250,000, driven by innovation in ETFs and reduced geopolitical uncertainty. However, bearish predictions, such as those from Carol Alexander of the University of Sussex, suggest a volatile range between $75,000 and $150,000, with a pivot at $110,000, due to potential pullbacks caused by restrictive monetary policies or financial crises. On Reddit, there's discussion about how the current rally could liquidate $1.13 trillion in short positions if Bitcoin rises another $2,000, potentially triggering a bullish cascade.
Factors such as Tether's market capitalization and overbought signals could limit the advance in the short term, but models like the Bitcoin Power Curve indicate a peak of $250,000-$300,000 if the bull cycle accelerates. In an optimistic scenario, with greater adoption and economic stability, the rally could propel Bitcoin toward $200,000 by year-end. Conversely, a pullback to $50,000 is not out of the question if recession fears persist.
In summary, Bitcoin's recent rally reflects the cryptocurrency's resilience, but its trajectory will depend on institutional flows and global events. With average predictions hovering around $150,000-$200,000, 2026 could mark a new milestone, although volatility serves as a reminder that nothing is guaranteed in this dynamic market.
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