I think the APR should be decent, but I don't think it is sustainable at the current Hive price. So I am leaning more towards 10% as the right number.
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The APR on HBD interests is something that is created through devaluating hive. Every HBD that is printed, represents 15 hive that are added to the circulation and dillute hive. With offer and demand, this simply increases the offer of hive without doing anything to the demand. The result is it helps to decrease hive prices but there will come a point where the low hive prices will have a direct impact on hbd because if the haircut is reached, hbd will loose dollar parity... So even HBD holders should be interested in having a sustainable balance.