Ten minutes later, another big upvote of 0.908. Since we just calculated a pending balance of 7.558, this upvote should have been bigger. This is the first evidence that something is other than expected.

After this post, you either had a pending balance of 6.65 (if the prior estimate was correct) or 1.816 if this vote was as intended. I expect it to be the former, implying a next vote of 2.216, rather than 0.605.