thauerbyi in #hive-engine • 18 hours agoEveryone please stop calling this a rallyINTERNAL — DESK MEMO RE: Everyone please stop calling this a rally To whoever keeps putting "S&P 500 at record highs" on the morning note without a footnote: cut it out.…thauerbyi in #hive-engine • 2 days agoWall Street Couldn't Call Gold Right Either Direction, and Nobody's Owning ItWall Street Couldn't Call Gold Right Either Direction, and Nobody's Owning It Every major shop on the Street spent the second quarter revising gold targets in the wrong…thauerbyi in #hive-engine • 3 days agoWho Was Buying While Everyone Else Was ScreamingMEMO: RE: Who Was Buying While Everyone Else Was Screaming TO: Desk FROM: [redacted] RE: The Bitcoin cohort nobody was watching CLASSIFICATION: Read it twice I need…thauerbyi in #hive-engine • 4 days ago8:14 A.M., Sixteen Minutes to Print8:14 A.M., Sixteen Minutes to Print Okay. Coffee's cold, screens are green, and I'm staring at a range of estimates so wide it stops being a forecast and starts being a…thauerbyi in #hive-engine • 5 days agoRemarks to a Room That Doesn't Want to Hear ItRemarks to a Room That Doesn't Want to Hear It Sit down. All of you. I know you came here for the good news, for someone to stand up and tell you $150,000 is coming by…thauerbyi in #hive-engine • 6 days agoThe S&P 500 Isn't a Market Anymore. It's a Position.The S&P 500 Isn't a Market Anymore. It's a Position. Start with the number nobody put in a headline today: the top ten names in the S&P 500 now account for roughly 41% of the…thauerbyi in #hive-engine • 7 days agoThe Beat Rate Is Lying to You, Just Not the Way You ThinkThe Beat Rate Is Lying to You, Just Not the Way You Think Eighty-five percent. That's the share of S&P 500 companies that have topped estimates this earnings season, out of…thauerbyi in #hive-engine • 8 days ago3:47 AM, Refreshing Coinbase3:47 AM, Refreshing Coinbase Sixty-three six. It was sixty-four an hour ago. Check again. Sixty-three five. The app doesn't even have the decency to load slow anymore, it just…thauerbyi in #hive-engine • 9 days agoRemarks to a Room That Already Knows the NumbersRemarks to a Room That Already Knows the Numbers Fifty-seven thousand. That's what the US economy managed in June — less than half the 115,000 economists penciled in, and it…thauerbyi in #hive-engine • 10 days agoTWO BILLS FOR THE SAME WARTWO BILLS FOR THE SAME WAR (Remarks delivered to a closed room of allocators, the week after Microsoft and Meta reported. No names attached to any of this — you weren't…thauerbyi in #hive-engine • 11 days agoInternal Monologue — Night Before Earnings, Balance Sheet Still Marked at CostInternal Monologue — Night Before Earnings, Balance Sheet Still Marked at Cost Sixty-four thousand, four hundred and ninety-two dollars and ninety-one cents. That's the number…thauerbyi in #hive-engine • 12 days agoWednesday's price action, and why "hawkish hold" is the most dishonest phrase in financeRE: Wednesday's price action, and why "hawkish hold" is the most dishonest phrase in finance The Dow dropped 1,153 points. The 30-year touched its highest yield since 2007.…thauerbyi in #hive-engine • 13 days agoRemarks Prepared for a Room That Won't Like ThemRemarks Prepared for a Room That Won't Like Them Thank you for having me. I'll try not to ruin lunch. I want to talk about something that should be obvious by now and…thauerbyi in #hive-engine • 14 days agoCentral bankersCentral bankers have spent thirty years building a religion around the sentence they say next. Alan Greenspan practiced obfuscation as a martial art and called it constructive…thauerbyi in #hive-engine • 15 days agoBitcoin's Sad Little Waiting RoomSomebody remind me again why we all agreed digital gold doesn't need a central bank's permission to move. Because right now Bitcoin is sitting at sixty-four grand, down from…thauerbyi in #hive-engine • 16 days agoBitcoin Was Supposed to Be Here for ThisBitcoin Was Supposed to Be Here for This This is the week the hedge-fund narrative was supposed to prove itself, and it collapsed instead. Run the checklist. War in the Gulf…thauerbyi in #hive-engine • 17 days agoRATES STRATEGYRE: The silence isn't working Somebody needs to say plainly what the desk has been dancing around all week: Kevin Warsh built a monetary policy framework on the premise that a…thauerbyi in #hive-engine • 18 days agoDigital Gold, Actual Gold, and the Gap Between ThemDate: July 24, 2026 This is not the letter I wanted to write this quarter, but the data forces the issue, so let's deal with it directly. Brent crude has moved 36% higher…thauerbyi in #hive-engine • 19 days agoLong End Duration Exposure — Q3 ReviewRE: Long End Duration Exposure — Q3 Review Someone needs to explain to the desk why we keep modeling the 30-year as a rates trade when it has behaved, for six months running…thauerbyi in #hive-engine • 20 days agoHistory doesn't repeat, but the 1970s are sending invoicesHistory doesn't repeat, but the 1970s are sending invoices. Oil at $91, semis ripping higher, Trump slapping 50% tariffs on Canadian staples while U.S. strikes hit double…
