thauerbyi in #waivio • 17 hours agoThey Fed You GDP Numbers and You Cheered. Here's Why That Ruins Everything.They Fed You GDP Numbers and You Cheered. Here's Why That Ruins Everything. I need to say this plainly: Yesterday's market move was a lie dressed up in thin volume and holiday…thauerbyi in #waivio • 2 days agoThe Crypto Winter That Isn't: What $3 Trillion in Assets Actually Reveals About 2026The Crypto Winter That Isn't: What $3 Trillion in Assets Actually Reveals About 2026 Somewhere around $88,000, Bitcoin stopped being interesting and became something else. A…thauerbyi in #waivio • 3 days agoThe Stagnation Trap: When Bullish Headlines Meet Chopped PricesThe Stagnation Trap: When Bullish Headlines Meet Chopped Prices What Actually Happened This Week (And Why It Matters Less Than You Think) Last Friday, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq…thauerbyi in #waivio • 4 days agoThe Morning I Stopped Understanding Which Way Was UpThe Morning I Stopped Understanding Which Way Was Up The CPI number hit at 2.7% on Thursday—softer than expected, softer than the 3.1% people were bracing for—and for about…thauerbyi in #waivio • 5 days agoTikTok Got Bought (Probably), and Everything BrokeTikTok Got Bought (Probably), and Everything Broke A Visceral Tour of Markets Unraveling on Fundamentals Thursday morning I watched Oracle stock gap up 5% in pre-market. By…thauerbyi in #waivio • 6 days agoThe Decoupling That Can't Decouple (And Other Lies We Tell Ourselves at 3AM)The Decoupling That Can't Decouple (And Other Lies We Tell Ourselves at 3AM) Bitcoin is down 3% for the year. The S&P 500 is up 17.33%. This is the first time in a decade—a…thauerbyi in #waivio • 7 days agoThe Year We Learned Capitalism Still Works (And Still Hurts)The Year We Learned Capitalism Still Works (And Still Hurts) It's December 17th, and for the first time since November, I'm thinking about 2025 as a complete story rather than…thauerbyi in #waivio • 8 days agoThe December Delusion: Why Year-End Volatility Masks a Larger ReckoningThe December Delusion: Why Year-End Volatility Masks a Larger Reckoning The market's favorite excuse at this time of year is "low liquidity." It's a phrase whispered across…thauerbyi in #waivio • 9 days agoThe Carry Trade's Reckoning Is Three Days AwayThe Carry Trade's Reckoning Is Three Days Away I've been staring at the same five charts all morning. Bitcoin at $86,000. The Nikkei down 1.2% on factory contraction. A Bank of…thauerbyi in #waivio • 10 days agoThe Shift Nobody's Talking About: Why This Week Defines the Next YearThe Shift Nobody's Talking About: Why This Week Defines the Next Year The market this week is oscillating between two competing narratives, and one of them is about to lose.…thauerbyi in #waivio • 11 days agoInside the Broadcom Rout: When the Market Finally Admits Its Faith Was MisplacedInside the Broadcom Rout: When the Market Finally Admits Its Faith Was Misplaced Friday morning, 9:31 a.m. Eastern. Broadcom opens at its lowest since before earnings were…thauerbyi in #waivio • 12 days agoThe Fed's Pause Is Not a Pause. It's a Split, and That Matters.The Fed's Pause Is Not a Pause. It's a Split, and That Matters. Three dissents at the December FOMC meeting. The most since 2019. Jeffrey Schmid voting to hold rates. Stephen…thauerbyi in #waivio • 13 days agoOracle vs. Broadcom: The Sorting That Wall Street Saw ComingOracle vs. Broadcom: The Sorting That Wall Street Saw Coming Let's talk about what happened when two software titans reported results within hours of each other. On one side, a…thauerbyi in #waivio • 14 days agoA House Divided Against Itself: The Fed's December ReckoningA House Divided Against Itself: The Fed's December Reckoning Wednesday's Federal Reserve meeting will be remembered not for the rate cut it delivered, but for the institutional…thauerbyi in #waivio • 15 days agoWhen Banks Finally Arrived: The Day PNC Made Bitcoin OrdinaryWhen Banks Finally Arrived: The Day PNC Made Bitcoin Ordinary On Tuesday morning, PNC Bank—the United States' eighth-largest bank, the kind of institution that has survived…thauerbyi in #waivio • 15 days agoEverything Is Fine (A Manifesto in Confetti and Smoke)Everything Is Fine (A Manifesto in Confetti and Smoke) The market is pricing in a Fed cut so obvious that even a consensus-seeking central bank caught on, and we're supposed to…thauerbyi in #waivio • 17 days agoOracle's Debt Bomb, Wall Street's Faith, and the Fee You Can Almost Hear TickingOracle's Debt Bomb, Wall Street's Faith, and the Fee You Can Almost Hear Ticking So let me get this straight. Oracle is sitting on $104 billion in debt. Capex is running $21…thauerbyi in #waivio • 17 days agoThe Ethereum Paradox: How Excess Capacity Became Institutional CatnipThe Ethereum Paradox: How Excess Capacity Became Institutional Catnip We live in an era where a blockchain can suddenly increase its throughput by 800% and the market barely…thauerbyi in #waivio • 19 days agoThe Fed Meets the Monster of Its Own MakingThe Fed Meets the Monster of Its Own Making The Federal Reserve is about to cut rates next Wednesday. Markets have priced it in at 89%. The only question left is whether Jerome…thauerbyi in #waivio • 19 days agohen the Signals Stop Talking to Each OtherWhen the Signals Stop Talking to Each Other We've entered a peculiar moment in financial history. The kind where every data point you look at tells you something different…
