DUO Guest Author @fonestreet with - Analysis of the fall

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Continuing with the analysis of the fall in the price of the HIVE token

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The previous post discussed two of the basic reasons why the price of this coin has been in constant decline.

  • The third reason is the dynamic between HIVE and HBD.

As I mentioned, this ecosystem has two coins;

HBD is an algorithmic stablecoin designed to be worth approximately $1 USD.

This brings us back to the conversion mechanism where the system allows us to convert one HBD for the equivalent of one dollar in HIVE. If the price of HIVE falls, the system has to print more currency to equalize that dollar, which causes the supply of HIVE in circulation to be diluted, further lowering its price.

The 20% interest on HBD, currently having HBD in savings for an annual interest of 20% is excellent for retaining value, however, it causes many investors to prefer to sell their HIVE to buy HBD and earn that secure 20% instead of speculating on the volatility of the HIVE token.

  • Let's move on to the fourth reason: the decline of the "Play to Earn" model (specifically @splinterland).

During the bull market in 2021, much of the volume and price increase of HIVE was driven by Splinterlands, the most popular Web 3 card game hosted on the HIVE blockchain.

When the play-to-earn gaming bubble burst, the number of active players and demand for resources on the network declined dramatically. Less activity in the game means less demand to buy Hive.

  • Fifth reason: Lack of venture capital (VC) and centralized marketing.

Unlike other blockchains (such as Solana Avalanche or Aptos), HIVE does not have a parent company or venture capital investors injecting millions of dollars into its marketing.

HIVE was born out of a community rebellion, a hard fork of Steem to expel Justin Sun. Although this makes it one of the purest and most decentralized networks in the world, it has a disadvantage: there is no million-dollar budget to pay for listings on the largest exchanges, such as Binance or Coinbase, nor to pay large influencers to promote this currency.

Sixth and last, we have the change in narrative in the crypto world.

The cryptocurrency market is driven by trends or narratives, and in 2020 and 2021, the trend was Web 3 games and decentralized social networks, which is Hive's strong point. However, today, investor money is chasing new trends such as artificial intelligence, memes with real-world assets, and layer 2 solutions, such as Ethereum, which has caused Hive to be temporarily off the radar of mass speculation.

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We can conclude that the price has fallen because more is being created and sold than external investors are buying, adding to a market where institutional money prefers other narratives of love. However, on a technological level, we remain a project that makes very solid free transactions in 3 seconds and has an extremely loyal community that continues to build applications on it despite the fall in price.


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