Gold is supposed to be a store of value and I had a position in gold miner ETF since April of 2021. Yesterday I sold the last of my GDX ETF. Why did I do it? My reason is quite simple: nobody went broke taking profits and I feel that my profit was good enough for me as GDX returns since I bought it exceeded SPX and even QQQ ETF returns.
Bulls make money and bears make money, but pigs get slaughtered. I don't want to be a greedy pig. When the news is showing people lining up to buy gold like this picture above and news is full of stories how people are worried and buying gold it makes me look at the chart:
What do I see in the chart above? I see a parabolic phase of a bull market in gold. Does it mean gold is going to sell off? No this speculative bubble may get much bigger, but bubbles always burst and I am not going to be able to sell it in time when everyone goes for the exits.
The risk of holding here is higher than the upside potential here in my opinion. And gold is acting here more like a crypto coin than the store of value it is supposed to be. Here is what Google search trends for buying gold look like:
This reminds me of the interest in crypto during altcoin season. It sure sounds like news has galvanized people into buying gold and retail is here. Everyone is talking about gold, so it means the trade is almost over.
Here is what Buy Bitcoin looks like:
I am surprised myself that I am saying it, but it looks like buying Bitcoin right now is safer than buying gold. Bitcoin is out of favor in Google search trends and has backed off quite a bit from the recent highs.
Also, as you can see from the chart above altcoins tend to underperform when gold is going up and when gold is flat or down altcoins tend to outperform.
Basically right now it is a risk of environment and altcoins are a risk on assets. When gold finally drops altcoins might finally get going.
Hive is trading at some of the lowest prices since the fork from steam:
It might actually be a decent time to buy some at these levels. I would not be surprised if it soon recovers to eighteen or nineteen cents.
But I think Etherium is a better play here as it is painting a bull flag pattern on its chart and has ETFs that let retail investors accumulate it and in general the altcoin season usually starts with Etherium.
I think we are getting close to the end of the current correction in crypto.
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